Mike McGuire is running in two elections for the same congressional seat—it's complicated
Mike McGuire swung through West County on Monday night as a part of his campaign to win the congressional seat for District 1, which starting in 2027 will stretch from Sebastopol to the Nevada border
Mike McGuire is an energizer bunny of a politician, now serving his final term as state senator for District 2 and as Pro Tem of the California State Senate. He is hoping to become the next U.S. Congressional Representative for the newly re-configured District 1, which, starting in 2027, will include Sebastopol, Graton, and Forestville (as well as a wide swath of central and eastern California.)
McGuire spoke to an enthusiastic crowd at a Vine Hill House fundraiser on Monday night, organized by former Sebastopol Mayor Diana Rich, Daniel Rich, Dan and Jan O’Connell (the owners of Vine Hill House), Marty Webb and Tamsin and Zack Smith.
McGuire is running in two simultaneous District 1 races, both of which have primaries this June. Because of Prop. 50 redistricting, however, these elections will take place in two different versions of District 1:
There will be a Primary on June 2 and a General Election on Nov. 3 for the newly configured District 1, created by Prop. 50—the so-called “Election Rigging Response Act,” which was California Governor Gavin Newsom’s response to Republican gerrymandering in Texas. The winner will serve a two-year congressional term, starting in January 2027. Voters in Sebastopol, Graton, Forestville and everyone else in the new District 1 will vote in this election.
At the same time, there is a Special Election to replace former District 1 Congressman Doug LaMalfa, a Republican who died in office in January of this year. Because Prop. 50 redistricting doesn’t take effect until 2027, this special election will take place in the old District 1. The winner will serve just a few months until the end of 2026. As a part of this election, there is a non-partisan primary in June. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in that election, there will be a general election on August 4 between the top two candidates. (Voters in Sebastopol, Graton and Forestville will not vote in the special election because they are not included in the old District 1 boundaries.)
McGuire was expected to run in the November General Election for District 1, but he announced in February that he was also going to run in the special election in Malfa’s old deep-red district. McGuire is running both races simultaneously.
“It’s really confusing,” he admitted. “We are saying it’s the North State Two-Step—two ballots, two votes, one name—making it as simple as possible.”
McGuire hopes his name will be the one that voters choose in both elections, but in the special election, he has stiff competition, including Assemblymember James Gallagher, a MAGA Republican from Yuba City, who has the endorsement of Donald Trump, and Democratic agricultural consultant Audrey Denney from Chico.
According to the Sacramento Bee, McGuire told reporters at the California Democratic Party convention in San Francisco that he decided to run for the special election because “our country was hanging on by a thread.”
“What we need right now are rural representatives who are focused on the issues that working families care about. They care about having a good, rural job,” he said. “They care about sending their kids to good public schools. They want us to keep their hospitals open, to keep their health care intact, and they want a more affordable life.”
McGuire wrote on X, “For too long, MAGA leaders have meant prices rising, hospitals closing, and communities hurting. We’re going to change that — and flip this seat once and for all.”
In his announcement on Feb. 20, he said, “The hardworking folks of the North State deserve representation that fights every day and delivers for good rural jobs, our hospitals and health centers, high quality public schools and the unique needs of rural communities,” McGuire said, “The stakes for this country are too high and we can’t afford to sit on the sidelines. I’m all in to deliver for the North State. Every damn day.”
He hit these same notes at Monday night’s gathering, detailing them in the classic rapid-fire, detail-rich McGuire style, which leaves listeners both inspired and a little breathless.
West County resident Mary Radu said afterward that “Mike has a ‘fire in the belly’ understanding of how critical it is for our Congress and nation to address the urgent needs of the majority of Americans for lower costs of food, gas, housing, education, the essentials of living today and building hope for their families’ future. We can do this if we get out of fighting wars abroad that benefit the few and federal spending to punish immigrants and people of color who are contributing members of our communities.”
What stuck with Sebastopol’s Jim Wheaton was the approach that McGuire was taking to woo the more conservative voters in the eastern part of the district.
“He talked about how many hospitals in the eastern counties he represents are going to shut down because of the cuts to Medicaid by the Republicans, and also about how unpopular the Iran war is with people worried about sending their kids overseas for an unjustified war. So, he is confident that many existing Republican voters, especially women, are not going to vote for the next MAGA Republican that comes along.”
Sebastopol City Councilmember Neysa Hinton was also in the audience. Hinton said she has known McGuire since 2003, before he became an elected official. “Tonight Mike promised, when elected, to be the hardest working person in the room—and I agree he will be! With nine counties in this new District CA-01, I endorse Mike because I believe he is the best person to represent us in the U.S. Congress.”
Former Sebastopol Mayor Diana Rich, one of the hosts for the evening, put it this way: “Everything he said called to me and my need for leadership that spots the issues that make all of us lose sleep—affordable housing, equity for all, education for all, opportunity for all. These are issues that are not party-specific. All of us want these for all Americans, no matter what party affiliation box we fill out when we register to vote.”
Rich also appreciated the in-depth Q&A at the end of the evening. “He listened and answered with genuine interest to every person who raised their hands,” she said. “He didn’t side-step questions or use them as a way to reinforce political ‘points’ he’d made. He listened and considered and provided content-rich answers. That was the most compelling part of the evening for me.”
We are reproducing selected questions from that Q&A below:
Mike McGuire Q&A
Speaking as a progressive Democrat, what the hell are we doing with the governor's race? [Editor’s note: there are 10 Democrats on the ballot for Governor.]
Yeah, look, everybody’s a little worried about the governor’s race, right? [Shouts of affirmation from the audience] So look, I’m gonna knock on wood. I think it’s going to work out and I’m going to tell you why. In 60 days out, where we’re essentially at, you start seeing a coalescing. So the California Democratic Party is going to be releasing a series of polls starting next week and for three subsequent weeks, showing where the entire field is. The pressure is going to be enormous for folks to start dropping out. I also think you’re gonna see the governor take a stand on the race. You’re going to see national pressure on folks to start stepping aside if these polls show that they’re simply not going to win, and about two thirds of them are going to have really low numbers, if I have to be so crass. There’s going to be an enormous push from across the state and nation for folks to get out of the race. So I think over the next three weeks, you’re going to see a huge change from where we’re at today to before absentee ballots go out.
But all those names are still on the ballot. Is there a message we should give to people that don't like one of the Democratic leaders in the polls and would rather vote for somebody else?
You got to vote for the top. I mean, just being honest, you got to vote for the top—in my opinion. Y'all do what you're gonna do, right? But please, you gotta vote for the winner, absolutely. I think it's going to be very clear who the top Democrat is going to be. There’s only like three of them now, and I think it's going to become even more clear, and then we all have to get behind that one that is leading in the polls. That's my belief, and that will ensure that we have a Democrat on June 2.
My son, who was in the Marine Corps for six years, got out prior to this recent event [Iran]. We need to remember all those soldiers and Marines who this president [Donald Trump] is sending to get killed or maimed. We have to pray for them, and we have to stop this war that we’re in.
Absolutely, there is no exit strategy, you’re absolutely right. What I'll also say is the ground invasion is real—whether it is for oil infrastructure or on their nuclear facility—it’s in the thousands. I was talking with a mama in Weaverville. Her son, 82nd Airborne, is now being sent over to Bahrain, even as we speak. It is devastating. Donald Trump promised us no forever wars. What I’ll also say is we had 63 folks at our Susanville Town Hall, eight self-identified as Republicans. Half said the reason why they're not voting for Donald Trump is because of the war. It has to be stopped. This country does not want it, and he’s never made the case, not once, right?
I want to talk about affordable housing in Sonoma County. I and many other teachers like myself just can't afford a home in the city we grew up in because it's so much more expensive than it used to be. But also the students that I talk to graduating high school right now are so scared about being able to afford anything.
I couldn't agree with you more. Housing has been a top priority. Look, it took everything we had for Erica and I to stay in this county. My son, Connor, is fifth generation. I know the councilmembers here may have something to say on this—on some of the state [housing] actions—but I believe that we have to build more housing, and we have to build more housing sooner rather than later…At the state level, we have made it easier to be able to build all levels of housing—market rate to affordable—in this state for any infill project 20 acres or less. We also have doubled the renters tax credit. We doubled the first-time home buyers program. What the state can do is ease the restrictions to be able to build housing infill—not within Greenland and not within our urban separators. [Editor’s note: I’m not sure whether he meant “greenbelts” here or whether this was a joke and a swipe at Donald Trump—either way, the line got appreciative laughter.]
So that's where we're very focused, and it has been a top priority of mine. But I also know it comes with a rub with local government because it pushes housing forward at a much faster place.
The biggest challenge we have right now with housing is the issue of interest rates and being able to get housing going. If it wasn't for voters moving forward for the housing bond, we would not even see some of the affordable units we’re seeing advanced right now.
So I could not agree with you more: it is a top priority, especially for young people. To keep our communities vibrant, we need multiple ages and diversity, and that's what it’s all about.
I just wanted to piggyback off what that gentleman over there said about the war. I wonder if you could speak to what we could be doing personally to try to put an end to Trump's agenda, in terms of the war?
Number one, we need to make sure that Congress upholds the War Powers Act within 60 days. Right at the start of a war, Congress needs to flex their muscle and their might. That’s what the Constitution says. Every one of you should be making sure that our representatives are taking their constitutional authority seriously and advancing invoking the War Powers Act in Congress.
You should also be targeting moderate Republicans—and the reason I say that is, it [the war] is incredibly unpopular with the more moderate Republican arm of the party. In fact, there's a Fox News poll that shows that out today is wildly unpopular. Folks don't want to send their kids to a war zone.
We're spending a billion dollars a day—a billion dollars a day on this war! Well, in three days, we could backfill the cuts to SNAP that Donald Trump cut. SNAP benefits go to help feed hungry families and seniors and kids. In 32 days—by the way, I think we’re in day 31—we could take back the subsidies that Donald Trump took away from the Affordable Care Act. The Average Californian who's on the ACA is paying $1,500 more per year because of that subsidy cut of $32 billion. So we have to fight it and [unclear] take to the streets. That's what we need to do…Democrats in Congress need to grow a damn spine. Shut the place down. It’s time.
As horrible as it is that we saw this bifurcated government shutdown, Donald Trump had the opportunity 12 times to be able to fund TSA. Republicans rejected every damn one of the Democratic bills, and through executive action, is now paying TSA. But if Democrats stick together and we grow a spine and we fight, America is going to win, and we have to shut it down because of this war.
One last thing on the war, we're preparing for $200 per barrel oil costs right now. That's what California is preparing for: $200 per barrel. Just 40 days ago, a barrel was at $62, one of the lowest that we've seen in a decade. We're in a world of hurt—and this isn't just going to be a recession here locally, in our nation; it's going to be across the world, and then the world is going to hold us accountable. So you’ve got to keep hitting the streets, and we’ve got to make sure that our leaders shut it down.
All these ideas are great, but unless you cross the aisle and start working with the Republicans, like democracy used to be back when I was growing up—which was a long, long time ago—you’re not going to get this done. Unless you impeach both the President and Vice President and get them out of the way completely, you’re not going to succeed. So you’ve got to do this stuff. It’s going to be painful, but it’s got to be done.
I couldn’t agree with you more, and I just want to give you a pointed example: 17 Republicans crossed the aisle with Democrats to be able to restore the $32 billion in subsidies for the Affordable Care Act—17! It passed the House with 17 votes for the largest margins since Mike Johnson took over. By the way, Mike Johnson is the most ineffective [speaker of the house], right? I mean, it’s just embarrassing. And here’s what I believe, I think that Republicans are going to start joining Democrats because they see the writing on the wall. Fifty-two percent of Republican women in this district blame Republicans for taking away their health care. By the way—it’s the truth, right?—but the reason why I say that is this: change is coming to this country.
We have our traditional allies in the world; now, our enemies. Everything is more expensive. Our health care has been taken away. Reproductive freedom has eroded and been taken away. Food has been taken off our tables of our hungriest neighbors, Republicans are going to join Democrats because they know if they don’t, they are cooked. So I’m all about working across the aisle—I support it—but I think, right now, in this era of Trump, the only reason they’re going to come across the aisle is because they want to keep their jobs. That’s the honest-to-God truth. Y’all, please push back on me if you think I’m mistaken.
But again, I’m a firm believer that there’s more that unites us than divides, and I work with everyone. You have to do that, especially in small rural communities, right? And I also do believe in impeachment, and I know that’s what he [Donald Trump] is deeply afraid of.
The last thing I’ll just say on this is the next two years, if the Democrats take the house, it is going to be rough, right? And what Democrats need to do is stand up and be public and fight for what we believe.
We have to get rid of the tariffs. By the way, $1.2 billion of California wine was taken off the shelves in Canada. One of the largest importers of California wine internationally is Canada. And number the one importer of California almonds? China. Guess who’s no longer buying our almonds? China. Largest importer of California rice? Japan. Guess who’s no longer buying our rice? Japan.
Farm equipment? Farm equipment is up 16%. Fertilizer up 100% (100% from a year ago). So we have to focus on the issues, and I think we also have a real opportunity to be able to get folks who traditionally would not vote for Democrats on our side as well.
As a small business owner in California, I feel like I’m constantly fighting, whether it’s the state health department, certifications, taxes. How do we keep small businesses here thriving, because it’s really hard.
So I think on the federal level, here’s what Democrats have got to do, and here’s the plan that we’ve put out. Number one is we have to repeal the tax cuts—the $2.2 trillion. I really do believe that should be going back into services that help people, right? Universal health care, universal community college, and expanding childcare across the nation.
The other focus that we need to have is a more aggressive tax system, especially for corporations. (So 1.4% of the population in the state of California pays 50% of the taxes.) What I think we need to focus on is small business development across the state and take part of that and invest in women and minority-owned businesses, in business expansion, and in particular, how we can help folks retain business and help them expand.
The last piece I’ll just say is I think, in California, we need to look at our regulations. We have been doing that, but you should know, it is always incredibly challenging.
[McGuire invited this questioner and another questioner, who asked about airplane noise in west county—something McGuire seemed not to have heard about—to meet with him and his staff.]
