The annual homeless count set for Jan. 30, despite doubts about federal funding

A court has temporarily halted the Trump Administration's efforts to redirect $3.9 billion away from permanent supportive housing programs and toward drug treatment

Sonoma County’s homeless program workers and volunteers are preparing for the annual countywide census of homeless individuals that will take place this year on Friday, Jan. 30. Over the last decade, the county’s field tally of shelterless people has slowly decreased year after year. But each year’s field survey always comes with surprises and a slightly altered overview of the region’s most vulnerable population.

Leaders of this year’s Point in Time (PIT) count, which is mandated by the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development, are again facing many unknowns. But the biggest is coming from HUD itself, where the Trump Administration is attempting to withhold and redirect $3.9 billion in previous funding. This total includes up to $300 million anticipated by the State of California and as much as $4.6 million to Sonoma County programs and housing vouchers.

Currently, the Trump Administration’s defunding efforts are being blocked in federal court. But this adds to the uncertainty around local and state grants that rely on federal money for emergency services, rapid re-housing programs, shelters and permanent supportive housing.

Local homeless programs are funded through an assortment of almost three dozen sources with the majority dependent on HUD underwriting or matching grants.

“HUD is the cornerstone,” Nolan Sullivan, the county’s director of Health Services, told the Sebastopol Times this week. “It’s a nightmare right now,” he said about the current funding holdup. “Even in other years our funding cycle is always chaotic, complicated and frustrating.”

Last year’s PIT count found a total of 1,953 people experiencing homelessness countywide. That represented a decrease from previous years both before and after the COVID19 pandemic years. The homeless count totaled 2,893 in 2022 and 2,996 in 2018.

Last year’s PIT count recorded 16 homeless people in Sebastopol and 165 in unincorporated western Sonoma County. But homelessness is a moving target and has been a recurring issue for the Sebastopol community just as it has remained a top concern listed by many throughout the county and elsewhere. In Sebastopol, the issue of homelessness made news over the past year with the opening of the Elderberry Commons, a permanent supportive housing site for previously chronically homeless people.

The project’s first months were marked by a noticeable surge of police calls and complaints from neighboring businesses and Elderberry residents. Elderberry Commons is owned by the nonprofit Burbank Housing Corporation, with social services provided by West Sonoma County Community Services (WSCS.) The project is not owned or controlled by the city of Sebastopol.

Sebastopol will also soon be the site of another permanent supportive housing project, Gravenstein Commons, on North Gravenstein Highway across from the Redwood Marketplace. It is currently under construction by the nonprofit St. Vincent de Paul (SVdP) Sonoma County, which, in partnership with the city of Sebastopol, won a roughly $6.45 million grant from the state of California’s Homekey Program. The county recently came through with an additional $1 million in Measure O funds for the project.

Jack Tibbetts, the executive director for SVdP Sonoma County, said the current holdup of HUD funding will not impact construction work at Gravenstein Commons.

“We have sustainable funding to go forward,” he said.

Gravenstein Commons will be a $7 million, 22-unit permanent supportive housing project, with the first tenants to be chosen from the county’s chronically homeless population.

Looking into the future, however, neither of these housing projects could operate without ongoing HUD funding. If the Trump Administration efforts are successful, they would have to make major changes to their programs’ housing acceptance criteria.

Volunteers needed

The County of Sonoma is accepting volunteers to help with the Jan. 30 PIT Count. Volunteers will work in teams and be assigned routes and locations, led by an experienced team leader. The count begins at 6 a.m. and can take up most of the day. Individuals must preregister and can find information and registration links at the Department of Health Services website.

The PIT survey teams start their day in darkness, equipped with flashlights to visit outdoor camps, parked vehicles, winter emergency shelters and other locations frequented by the homeless. The PIT teams include formerly homeless people to serve as field guides.

Michael Gause, head of the county’s Ending Homelessness Team, said volunteers can register up to just a few days before the Jan. 30 count. He said it takes a team of about 150 people to conduct the annual PIT survey.

Both Gause and Sullivan said they expect the 2026 survey totals to be very similar to last year’s.

An uncertain future

Both men individually raised concerns about increased homelessness in future years if the federal HUD funds are withheld or redirected.

“If we face funding gaps this year, then we can expect increases in our homeless population the following years,” said Gause, who credited a recent decade of consistent funding with reducing the county’s overall shelterless population. (Sonoma County’s “official” homeless population reached a high in 2012 with 4,400 people counted during the annual January count.)

“We use the annual count to help determine if we’re headed in the right direction,” said Sullivan. “No matter what we see, we can’t do very much planning without knowing the status of HUD funding.”

As mandated by HUD, all the various government and nonprofit partners involved in addressing homelessness meet monthly as the Continuum of Care (COC) council (now known as the Sonoma County Homeless Coalition).

Last year the COC coordinated the implementation of $8 million in funding, with more than half coming from HUD. Gause said the COC partners continue to meet monthly even as all future funding becomes more and more in question. A portion of the monthly meetings usually reviews updates or new analysis of the previous year’s PIT homeless population census, added Gause.

“We have to continue meeting and try to plan for any funding gaps we may face,” said Gause. “We may have increased needs to serve.”

The county and its contract firm, Applied Survey Research, completed follow-up “by name” surveys after last year’s PIT count to better identify the county’s homeless population by age, background, location and other demographics. The research created a set of “Data Portraits” that showed 76 percent of the counted population had been homeless for more than one year. One third (32%) were experiencing their first episode of homelessness. Self-reported causes of homelessness in this survey included loss of a job (16%), family argument (13%), substance abuse (12%), cost of living (11%) and eviction (9%). Among all the homeless people counted last year, more than half of them self-reported having a psychiatric, emotional or substance abuse problem.

In addition to potential disruptions to HUD funding, many lower-income households also are currently facing losses to food and healthcare subsidies and social support programs. Homeless statistics show that food insecurity and medical emergencies are the other key factors that can lead to homelessness.

“We’re already seeing the likelihood of 11,000 or more people about to lose their affordable healthcare coverage,” Sullivan said.

“The so-called social safety net has been through a lot in recent years,” said Sullivan, a 17-year veteran of public health and human services. “We’ve had two recessions, a housing crisis, a pandemic and state budget deficits.’’

During those economic challenges, Sullivan said federal HUD funding had remained fairly constant. But not this year.

“A few thousand people could lose housing,” Sullivan predicted.

It’s no surprise to anyone that Sonoma County is an expensive place to live with some of the highest housing prices and monthly rents in the nation. According to Generation Housing, a local affordable housing nonprofit advocate organization, a two-person household would need an annual income of $205,000 to afford a mortgage or buy a home right now in Sonoma County. Based on several market reports, monthly rents for one- and two-bedroom apartments can reach $2,000 or more in most Sonoma County communities. Sebastopol is considered the county’s second least affordable housing community after Healdsburg, according to the same market reports.

A change of plans

Last August, Sullivan and Gause joined 5^th District supervisor Lynda Hopkins to present an overview of local homelessness to the Sebastopol City Council. This week both Gause and Sullivan said the only updates or changes they might add to their previous report would be the current risk of HUD funding for next year.

Last year, Sullivan described the “Housing First” model all local homeless programs follow. “The thought process here is if you have someone that’s living under a bridge and is addicted to substances, the likelihood that they’re going to enter a substance abuse program is zero or almost none. To get people to deal with their issues housing them is the first thing that you should do,” Sullivan told the city councilmembers.

The Trump Administration is trying to replace this “Housing First” model with an approach that would require mandatory drug treatment for homeless individuals and would require people to be sober before being entitled to subsidized housing.

“The change would mean all the sites and projects would have to be sober or dry operations,” said Gause. “No matter what you think about this, making a whole cloth change will be very disruptive.”

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