The Waiting Game
Emergency workers leap into action, while Sebastopol battens down the hatches and watches the laguna as a series of new storms advance toward west county.

As the rain keeps coming down and with three more storms predicted for the upcoming week, it’s hard not to feel an uneasy sense of déjà vu.
The rain kept coming in February 2019 as well, allaying drought worries then bringing a deluge that culminated in the submergence of Guerneville and the flooding of the Barlow and other low-lying neighborhoods in Sebastopol.
Like many in Sebastopol, we wondered if we were in for a replay of the flood of 2019—when a Russian River peak of 45.5 feet pushed the laguna into eastern Sebastopol. If so, what, if anything is being done differently this time around to prepare for that?
“In my six years on this job, I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed the level of collaboration I’m seeing come together in this storm event,” District 5 County Supervisor Lynda Hopkins wrote on her Facebook page, which has become a must-read during disasters. (https://www.facebook.com/supervisorlyndahopkins)
Sebastopol’s new Interim Fire Chief and Director of Emergency Services Jack Piccinini echoed those sentiments:
“Every single day we are joined in a large Zoom conference meeting with meteorologists and all the emergency response and emergency management personnel. Everybody is briefing each other on what resources are available,” Piccinini said.
“They have staffed a command center for the entire West County out of the Graton Fire Station. They have additional resources that were assigned to the Forestville Fire Station. So those are some assets that we have access to,” he said.
In terms of Sebastopol proper, Piccinini said, “The volunteers have all stepped up. We had them here in the fire station into the evening, into the night. We staffed our boat—we did not get deployed for any assignments, but we were ready to go. Then we had the usual battery of trees down, power lines down, those kinds of things.”
“Other than that, we continue to monitor. The laguna is obviously our nemesis,” he said. “So, we look at a couple of things, based on observations and then predictions from the weather service. It is expected that on Monday the laguna will hit flood level, which doesn't necessarily mean it's into the Barlow or anything like that, but the Russian River and tidal influence have an impact on the laguna levels. So on Monday, you know, the prediction is, is that the Russian River will be between 32 and 36 feet. And again, that's flood level [for the river], but that doesn't mean it's into the town of Guerneville like 2019.”
“So again, impactful, but we have everything in position, because it is weather, which is hard to predict. So should something come in off the coast and then stall, and we get more rain than they are anticipating or predicting…” he trailed off.
“But the bottom line is, we're ready to do what we need to do—with the boat, with the water rescue team, with the volunteers here in the fire station responding to isolated incidents, like the ones that I mentioned.”
Getting ready for a flood that may or may not appear
Hopefully, the rescue boat won’t be needed.
Although there were fears that the Russian River would tip over into the 40-plus-foot mark, the newest NOAA forecast just released at 1:53 am on Friday, January 6, has dialed this back to 38.2 feet on Tuesday evening, Jan. 10, which may not be enough to push the laguna into Sebastopol.

“The weather has proven not to be as severe as was first thought, and the Laguna peak was not as high as was first suggested,” Piccinini said in the Jan. 6 Sebastopol City Newsletter. “The continued stacking of storms through Monday does continue to present a potential threat; however, that threat has been significantly moderated. As periods of moderate to heavy rains occur, minor flooding—street and small stream flooding—are possible. We continue to monitor the situation and remain prepared for calls for service. Citizens are encouraged to monitor the situation and be prepared for potential localized flooding or unexpected power outages.”
What’s happening in Sebastopol’s most vulnerable areas?
The Barlow, the Sebastopol Community Cultural Center (SCCC) on Morris Street, and other low-lying neighborhoods near the laguna are the most vulnerable to flooding.
City Manager Larry McLaughlin said on Thursday, Jan. 5, “The Barlow has practiced its flood prevention process several times, and yesterday informed us of their plans to implement their barriers. That said, we are following up with them today. We are also monitoring Park Village. Residents there were warned of possible evacuation yesterday.”
Councilmember Diana Rich is confident that the city is doing everything in its power to be prepared.
“Having checked in with SCCC, the Fire Chief, and The Barlow, I am confident Sebastopol is monitoring the situation and will be ready for flooding, if in fact we get any flooding. I just checked NOAA, and it looks like the projected high-water mark at the Guerneville Bridge is going down now, to 36.1. That’s not even what we faced in 2017, and it’s far below the 2019 45.4 Guerneville Bridge peak. Now, things could certainly change, and quickly, but this is a good trend. More importantly, Sebastopol City staff is monitoring all of this very, very carefully. They are on it 100%,” she said.
The Barlow
Piccinini said he was working closely with the Barlow management team.
“They have a flood management plan, and that plan was updated since 2019. It's been approved. And I can tell you that we went through an exercise just a few months ago of them deploying what they call the log dams and different systems and devices. It requires a lot of labor, and it requires forklifts and it requires a lot of things to get out of storage and in position properly and in a timely manner. And they did a really good job during that exercise.”
“They're also taking this very seriously. I've been in contact with their management team. They too are monitoring the weather, monitoring the Russian River levels, which again has an impact on the laguna level.”
Piccinini said the Barlow had planned to initiate some operations on Thursday, Jan. 5. “However, the predictions have kind of turned down a little bit and so they're not going to take action today. They're going to continue to monitor it through the weekend. But they're poised, they are in a position, they are ready to take action. They're staying on top of it.”
The Community Center
Nothing can really be done from a structural standpoint to protect the community center from flooding, other than sand bags (which are quickly overwhelmed in a larger flood). Instead, the community center’s plan focuses on moving valuable items out of the building.
“Regarding evacuation, we’re on standby with it,” SCCC Director Mark de Saulnier said. “We have a small leadership team that is watching it to make sure, in case we need to call our volunteer list and begin the larger process of taking most everything out of the main hall.”
“We’ve already begun taking out certain items that are higher cost – our new sound system, some of our new curtain treatment, and then,” depending on the weather and meteorological predictions, “appliances and flooring will come next.”
“We're just watching it really closely,” he said. “It looks like the laguna won’t flood our way Monday, but the rest of the week it's raining, so it's all up in the air—and the pun is intended.”
Park Village and other neighborhoods near the laguna
Park Village, the city’s low-low-income housing site, is located right next to the laguna. Tomodachi Park, which runs along Park Village’s eastern boundary, is already under water.
“We are in direct contact with the City and Fire Department,” said Tim Miller, director of West County Community Services, which runs Park Village. “The current forecast, through Wednesday, is that the Laguna will not flood. This is dynamic, of course.”
“Our resident manager has contacted the residents to prepare for flooding,” he said.
Park Village is made up mostly of mobile homes; it was severely damaged in 2019. “We have contacted a local towing company to maintain open communication in case we do need to move,” Miller said.
As for neighborhoods like Johnson Street and the neighborhoods east of Petaluma Avenue, bordering on the laguna, Piccinini urges vigilance.
He noted that the city is using its websites and newsletter, as well as social media to get the word out.
“We do not have a specific trigger or warning for any of the low-lying areas into Sebastopol,” Piccinini said. “We don't have any predictive services that are directing us to warn those people and get them out.”
“People have a responsibility to start looking at the weather, start looking at the warnings and the advisories,” he said. “We do have an expectation that people through their own observations and own technology will stay on top of it.”
Resources
Here are some links to help you stay on top of this rapidly evolving situation.